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☆ Insight: BOJ makes bold shift as yen risks grow too big to ignore
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

The BOJ's decision shook markets on Friday and contrasted sharply with Ueda's more cautious comments in recent months about the dangers of retreating too quickly from accommodative Kuroda-era policies. "There's also a small but probable risk of inflation overshooting in Japan, which gave the BOJ reason to act." NEW PRIORITIESThe BOJ's policy decision last week signalled to investors that it would now allow the 10-year government bond yield to move closer to 1% before it intervenes. 'BIT BY BIT'The shift in thinking gained momentum at the BOJ's June policy meeting, but not enough to turn the tide. It was a test case, or a preliminary exercise, toward future policy normalisation," said former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi.

Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Haruhiko Kuroda, Fumio, accommodative Kuroda, Ueda, YCC, There's, Hirokazu Matsuno, Seiji Adachi, Asahi Noguchi, Ryozo Himino, Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, Masato Kanda, Kanda, Takahide, Leika Kihara, Takaya Yamaguchi, Takahiko Wada, Kentaro Sugiyama, Yoshifumi, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, TOKYO, Bank, Ueda, Reuters, BIT, Asahi, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan

[1/6] A chef cooks tofu as he prepares a dish before the opening for dinner hour at Ukai, a traditional Japanese restaurant, in Tokyo, Japan, July 6, 2023. "There's no doubt rising wages and bonuses are among factors prodding customers to come dine with us despite the price hikes," said Ukai manager Yuka Hoshino. It is also drawing the attention of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which is shifting away from its view the recent cost-driven inflation will prove temporary. "Japan is seeing early signs of progress in achieving inflation accompanied by higher wages," another source said, a view echoed by two more sources. The BOJ is changing its tone on the drivers of inflation and how they see progress made in sustainably hitting 2% inflation.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Hiroki Wakita, Yuka Hoshino, Kazuo Ueda, Teikoku Databank, Akihito Sato, Shohei Kanai, Ryozo Himino, Seisaku Kameda, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Research, Workers, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, French, Ginza

However, there is uncertainty about how long households can weather price hikes and generate inflation driven more by demand, which holds the key to whether BOJ's 2% target can be achieved in a sustainable manner, analysts say. The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 3.2% in June from a year earlier, accelerating from a 3.1% gain in May. While companies offered wage hikes unseen in three decades this year, inflation-adjusted real pay continues to fall in a sign of pain consumers are feeling from the wave of price hikes. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly said the BOJ will maintain ultra-loose policy until stronger wage growth keeps inflation sustainably around its 2% target. "The BOJ may revise up its inflation forecast but probably keep policy steady in July," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

Persons: Yoshiki Shinke, Teikoku Databank, Kazuo Ueda, Ryozo Himino, Takeshi Minami, Takahiko Wada, Leika, Satoshi Sugiyama, Kantaro, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Dai, Research, Reuters, BOJ, Norinchukin Research, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, TOKYO

[1/3] New Governor of Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda waits for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida before their meeting at prime minister?s official residence in Tokyo, Japan, April 10, 2023. "Given high economic uncertainty, the BOJ will communicate closely with the government and guide monetary policy flexibly," Ueda told reporters after meeting with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to receive his official appointment letter. In parliamentary confirmation hearings in February, Ueda has stressed the need to keep ultra-easy policy to ensure Japan sustainably achieves the BOJ's 2% inflation target backed by wage growth. Ueda will chair his first policy meeting on April 27-28, when the board produces fresh quarterly growth and price forecasts extending through fiscal 2025. Ueda served as BOJ board member from 1998 to 2005, during which the central bank introduced zero interest rates and then quantitative easing to combat deflation and economic stagnation.

☆ Japan's new central bank chief assumes office as global risks loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] The Japanese government's nominee for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks during a hearing session at the lower house of the parliament in Tokyo, Japan, February 24, 2023. The 71-year-old academic's term began on Sunday, succeeding Haruhiko Kuroda, whose second, five-year term ended on Saturday. Ueda and his two deputy governors, Shinichi Uchida and Ryozo Himino, will hold a joint news conference at 1015 GMT on Monday. Japan's long-stagnant inflation and wage growth are showing budding signs of change. Ueda served as BOJ board member from 1998 to 2005, during which the central bank introduced zero interest rates and then quantitative easing to combat deflation and economic stagnation.

☆ BOJ's new deputy chief flags chance of change to yield control policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"If various conditions fall in place, some sort of change to yield curve control may become necessary. If conditions turn positive, (a tweak) will undoubtedly become a possibility," Uchida told parliament. Uchida said trend inflation was "extremely important" in judging whether Japan will sustainably meet the BOJ's 2% price target. Rather than focusing on a particular set of indicators, however, the central bank will look comprehensively at various data in setting monetary policy, he added. A career central banker, Uchida is one of two deputy governors.

☆ Kuroda defends Bank of Japan's ultra-dovish stance in his final policy meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), at the central bank's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Thursday, May 27, 2021. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesJapan's outgoing central governor Haruhiko Kuroda defended the Bank of Japan's ultra-dovish monetary policy stance at his final policy meeting on Friday. Kuroda has led the central bank's ultra-dovish monetary policy for the past decade – even as global central banks in recent months raised interest rates in a bid to tame inflation. "Financial conditions have been accommodative on the whole, although weakness in firms' financial positions has remained in some segments," the central bank said. New BOJ leadershipJapan's upper house in parliament approved Ueda to be the next central bank governor, Kyodo reported.

☆ Bank of Japan keeps low rates as Kuroda sticks to script at swan song meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

At its two-day meeting that ended on Friday, the BOJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that for the 10-year bond yield around 0%. It also left unchanged a band set around the 10-year yield target that allows the yield to rise up to 0.5%. “The decision to uphold policy rates comes at a cost. Many investors expect the central bank to phase out YCC when Kuroda’s successor, Kazuo Ueda, takes the helm in April. “The BOJ will likely abandon its 10-year bond yield target, while maintaining negative interest rates, to arrest distortions in the yield curve,” he said.

☆ BOJ set to keep ultra-low rates at Kuroda's final policy meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"After conducting an examination of its policy framework, the BOJ will either abandon the 10-year yield target or shift to one targeting a shorter duration," she said. At the two-day meeting ending on Friday, the BOJ is set to maintain its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that for the 10-year bond yield around 0%. Some market players bet the BOJ could widen the band set around the 10-year yield target, allowing the yield to rise up to 0.75%, from the current 0.5%, as early as Friday. But many analysts polled by Reuters expect any tweak in YCC to happen after Ueda takes over as new governor. Ueda will chair his first policy meeting on April 27-28, when the board will produce closely watched, fresh quarterly growth and price forecasts extending through fiscal 2025.

With the approval, government nominee Kazuo Ueda will officially succeed incumbent BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda whose second, five-year term ends on April 8. But the BOJ's current policy is a necessary, appropriate means to achieve 2% inflation," Ueda told parliament last month, signalling that he was in no rush to hike rates. "I'll succeed the policy in the context of seeking to hit the BOJ's 2% inflation stably and sustainably," Ueda replied. Hiroshi Shiratori, a professor at Japan's Hosei University, see the appointment of Ueda as a sign Kishida wants the BOJ to phase out the legacy policy of Abenomics. "Ueda is saying the BOJ will maintain low rates for now.

Rather, it must come up with ideas" to mitigate the costs and help sustain stimulus, Uchida told an upper house confirmation hearing. The remarks follow those of incoming BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Monday suggesting his preference to spend "plenty of time" if the central bank were to conduct a review of its policy framework. While stressing that it was premature to discuss an exit strategy from ultra-loose monetary policy, Uchida said any exit would involve adjustments in the BOJ's interest rate targets and the level of its balance sheet. "In what order and at what timing the BOJ will make these adjustments will depend on economic and financial developments at the time," Uchida said. The BOJ can tap its experience conducting ultra-loose policy and dealing with market forces, to ensure it can steer a smooth exit regardless of economic conditions at the time, he said.

☆ Incoming BOJ chief Ueda to speak in parliament as yield cap comes under attack
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] A general view shows a parliamentary session at the Lower House of Parliament in Tokyo, Japan November 10, 2021. In a column issued last July, Ueda warned against raising rates prematurely but said the BOJ must eventually consider how to exit its ultra-loose policy. The government's deputy governor nominees - former banking watchdog head Ryozo Himino and BOJ executive Shinichi Uchida - will testify in the afternoon after Ueda. The upper house of parliament will hold the confirmation hearing for Ueda on Monday, and that for the two deputies on Tuesday. Under YCC, the BOJ guides short-term interest rates at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield around 0% as part of efforts to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target.

Kazuo Ueda, a 71-year-old university professor who has kept a low profile despite strong credentials as a monetary policy expert, ticked some important boxes. While he was not even on the list of dark horse candidates floated by the media, Ueda was well known in global central bank circles. The bank's preferred choices were incumbent deputy governor Amamiya, as well as former deputies Hiroshi Nakaso and Hirohide Yamaguchi, given their deep knowledge on monetary policy. Matsuno said he hoped the BOJ works closely with the government and guides monetary policy flexibly, when asked whether Ueda's appointment could lead to a retreat from Abenomics. While he warned of the rising cost of the BOJ's yield control policy, Ueda has called for the need to keep monetary policy loose to ensure Japan stably achieves the bank's 2% inflation target.

☆ Kazuo Ueda is set to become Japan's next central bank governor. Here's what it means
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesKazuo Ueda is set to become the next governor of the Bank of Japan, succeeding current central bank chief Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Kishida recently emphasized the need for the next central bank governor to have "global communication skills" and be able to coordinate closely with global peers, Reuters reported, citing his comments in parliament. He has led the central bank's ultra-dovish monetary policy, including maintaining a negative interest rate since 2016 – even as global peers have been hiking to tackle inflation. Bank of America Global Research expects gradual policy normalization under the central bank's new leadership instead of an abrupt change, according to the firm's economists led by Izumi Devalier. 'Well-suited' deputiesJapan's government also reportedly announced its nominees for other central bank roles including Shinichi Uchida, currently the central bank's executive director, and Ryozo Himino, the former chief of Japan's Financial Services Agency.

Ueda, a 71-year-old former Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board member, will succeed incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda, whose second, five-year term ends on April 8, according to documents presented to parliament on Tuesday. Analysts expect Ueda, who had warned of the dangers of premature interest rate hikes in the past, to hold off on tightening monetary policy. "Ueda is likely to focus on theory and empirical analysis in guiding monetary policy," said Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Upon parliament's approval, Ueda will chair his first BOJ policy meeting on April 27-28. A soft-spoken academic with a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Ueda is seen as a pragmatist who can adjust his views on monetary policy flexibly.

[1/2] Kazuo Ueda, a former member of the BOJ's policy board, is seen at the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan May 25, 2022, in this photo taken by Kyodo. Ueda, a 71-year-old former Bank of Japan policy board member and an academic at Kyoritsu Women's University, will succeed incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda, whose second, five-year term ends on April 8. The governor and deputy governor nominees will testify at confirmation hearings to be held on Feb. 24 for the lower house, and Feb. 27 for the upper chamber. International markets have been closely watching Kishida's choice of next BOJ governor for clues on how soon the bank could phase out its yield curve control (YCC) policy. With markets creaking under the BOJ's heavy-handed intervention, many investors are betting the central bank will start hiking rates under Kuroda's successor.

[1/4] A Japanese flag flutters atop the Bank of Japan building under construction in Tokyo, Japan, September 21, 2017. "This is a problem that is not going to change easily," said Momoko Nojo, a prominent campaigner for gender equality in Japan. The BOJ ranked 142nd of 185 central banks on gender equality, according to a report last year by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. About 11% of central banks surveyed had a female governor, a record high, while 37% had female deputy governors. That target is far below the European Central Bank, where women hold 30% of management roles.

With inflation accelerating, Ueda could finally set Japan on a path to raise rates after the BOJ spent a decade fighting deflation risks with its unorthodox bond buying scheme costing trillions of yen. Ueda himself on Friday said current policy settings were appropriate, which also put a bit of a dampener on expectations of any shift. Implied volatility has also eased in the forex options market, suggesting an ebbing in bets on big shifts in the yen exchange rate. "It's not very apparent that (Ueda) would take on the job and then immediately change the policy." To be sure, 10-year Japanese yields were untraded at the BOJ's ceiling on Monday, indicating plenty of investors are staying short.

☆ Japanese yen jumps on report Kazuo Ueda will be next governor of the central bank
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged on Wednesday. The Japanese yen pushed higher against both the euro and U.S. dollar on Friday after a Nikkei report said Kazuo Ueda would be appointed as the Bank of Japan's next governor. Economist Ueda is a former member of the central bank's policy board. Kuroda has overseen the BOJ's policy of ultra-low interest rates while other major central banks have been hiking to tackle inflation. However, Muto added, he may not be a "super hawkish type" – so any "normalization" would take place very slowly.

Tokyo, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Japan's government is likely to appoint Kazuo Ueda, an academic and a former member of the central bank's policy board, as the Bank of Japan's next governor, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Friday. The government will also nominate Ryozo Himino, former head of Japan's banking watchdog, and BOJ executive Shinichi Uchida as deputy governors, the Nikkei said. The government initially sounded out incumbent Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya for the top BOJ job, but he declined, the Nikkei reported without citing sources. The yen strengthened from around 131.55 yen per dollar to around 130.60 after the Nikkei report. In an opinion piece that ran on the Nikkei in July last year, Ueda said warned the BOJ against prematurely raising interest rates just because inflation briefly exceeded 2%.

The BOJ’s YCC faces a reckoningThe surprise news left investors and analysts trying to parse Ueda's recent commentary. "There is probably a lack of clarity on Ueda's policy leanings at the moment, but at least it is clear that Amamiya (who is seen as a dove) is out. That removes one of the headwinds for the yen," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC in Singapore. "The knee-jerk reaction in yen appreciation is more of a reaction to Amamiya being out of the race." I think the new team means that they will redesign the BOJ's monetary policy, not maintain the current policy," said Takayuki Miyajima, a senior economist at Sony Financial Group in Tokyo.

☆ Factbox: Who are candidates to become next BOJ governor?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-05 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Nikkei newspaper reported the government has sounded out BOJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya as the next governor, citing anonymous government and ruling party sources. The government will present a nominee for BOJ governor, and that for two deputy governors, to parliament later this month. But he also said in July the BOJ must "always" think about the means of exiting ultra-loose monetary policy. FEMALE DEPUTY GOVERNOR CANDIDATESNo female has yet served as BOJ deputy governor or governor, a tradition Kishida may seek to change to enhance diversity. FINANCIAL BUREAUCRAT DEPUTY GOVERNOR CANDIDATESIf a former BOJ executive becomes governor, there is a strong chance one of the deputy governor posts will be filled by top finance ministry bureaucrats such as Shigeaki Okamoto and Yasushi Kinoshita.

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